The Western Conference Finals is set to be the most thrilling series of the NBA Playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder return to this stage for the first time since 2016, while the Minnesota Timberwolves are making their second consecutive appearance in the Conference Finals.
This best-of-7 series will feature strategic battles and adjustments, along with several key X-Factors. Here are five X-Factors to keep an eye on as the Western Conference Finals plays out.
Western Conference Finals X-Factors
1. Shooting Variants
Both teams hinge on 3-point shooting for different reasons. The Oklahoma City Thunder often leave corner 3s open, swarming the ball and clogging paint touches for players like Julius Randle, then rushing to close out. If the Minnesota Timberwolves hit these shots, their offense could surge.
Minnesota used zone defense sparingly but leaned on it against the Thunder to slow Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, leaving OKC’s role players open from deep. If those teammates sink 3s, Minnesota may need to adjust.
With Chet Holmgren as OKC’s lone big, Rudy Gobert might guard Lu Dort, staying near the rim and daring the streaky shooter to fire. This lets Minnesota use man-to-man defense and avoid Gobert guarding Holmgren on the perimeter.
The Thunder (31.9%) are the worst 3-point shooters left, while the Timberwolves (35.0%) are second-worst. Something’s got to give.
2. Jalen Williams
The Oklahoma City Thunder are placing big expectations on their third-year swingman. Being the No. 2 option on a championship-contending team is tough at any age, especially in just his second playoff run. Williams has had mixed results this postseason, though his decision-making remains steady.
Facing the Minnesota Timberwolves, anchored by Rudy Gobert at the rim, presents a new challenge. The Thunder need Williams to attack the basket aggressively and finish strong—something he’s struggled with inconsistently this postseason. The Santa Clara alum is also a better 3-point shooter than his playoff performance suggests. If he finds his range this series, he could earn major praise by the end. This series is a defining moment for Williams to shape his postseason reputation, a heavy burden at this stage of his career.
3. Timberwolves Ball Handlers
Turnovers are key against the Oklahoma City Thunder, a trend all season. They offset the Thunder’s rebounding weaknesses, which could be exposed in this series, and let OKC avoid their struggling half-court offense.
Minnesota’s zone defense and elite defensive unit can trouble the Thunder, but if turnovers force the Timberwolves to constantly defend in transition, things could unravel quickly for them.
The Thunder’s defenders excel at forcing turnovers, while the Timberwolves average 14.8 giveaways per game this postseason—highest among remaining playoff teams—against weaker defenses.
4. Naz Reid
Naz Reid is a dynamic, versatile weapon for the Timberwolves, matching the Thunder’s lineup flexibility. Both teams can switch between solo big, double-big, and small-ball lineups, largely thanks to Reid’s adaptability.
He’ll have opportunities to sink corner 3s that frustrate Thunder fans while bringing physicality to disrupt OKC’s drivers defensively. His size creates matchup problems for the Thunder, who will often guard him with smaller wings and forwards. Reid has thrived against OKC this season, averaging 22.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and nine stocks (steals + blocks) over four games—his highest scoring output against any team this season.
5. Jaylen Clark
In the Western Conference Finals, every strategy must be considered. Jaylen Clark has been offensively limited, playing just six postseason minutes. However, he was one of the best at defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season. If offenses stall, as anticipated, leaning into Clark’s defensive strengths could pay off.
The Timberwolves have strong defenders like Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Naz Reid to throw at the likely MVP. But with Clark’s defensive skill and potential foul trouble, he could see minutes. Expect a tightly contested, lengthy best-of-7 series with an NBA Finals spot at stake.
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