Are the Trail Blazers Rising… or Just Recovering?
The Portland Trail Blazers are generally seen as a team trending upward in the NBA—at least in casual circles. Their 36-win season in 2024–25 marked a significant improvement, 15 wins better than the year prior. With a youthful roster loaded with top draft picks, there’s reason to be hopeful about the future. If you’re looking for a reason to be optimistic, it’s not hard to find.
But that optimism isn’t shared by the latest contributor to the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Despite a 71% jump in wins from one season to the next, this fan isn’t satisfied. Instead of focusing on progress, he wants to dive into the Trail Blazers’ missteps over the last several years—specifically under GM Joe Cronin’s leadership. Here’s his question:
Dear Dave,
Hope you’re doing better than the Blazers—though that’s not saying much. You always manage to find the bright side, but I’ve got a question I don’t think even you can spin. What are the dumbest decisions the Blazers have made over the last 4–5 years, particularly during the Joe Cronin era? If you could undo any moves, which ones would they be?
—Dan
Dave’s Response: Optimism, Realism, and the Thin Line Between Genius and Folly
People call me an optimist—and some call me far worse—depending on whether I praise or criticize a move. That’s just part of the job. So, sure, let’s put on the optimistic hat again.
But let’s talk about this idea of a “dumb” move. It’s a loaded term. It implies a poor decision made despite having the freedom and ability to choose better. But in the NBA, that freedom is often constrained. Teams don’t have unlimited control. If Portland hasn’t traded for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Nikola Jokić, it’s not because they’re blind—it’s because they can’t. Often, what looks “dumb” was the least-bad option available at the time.
Let me illustrate with a thought experiment. Say a coach facing a clearly superior playoff opponent has just a 4% chance to win. But he’s devised a bizarre, risky strategy that could boost those odds to 9%. Pure logic says he should go for it—more than doubling the chance to win. But if he does, and the plan fails (which is still 91% likely), he’ll be crucified for it. Media, fans, and even his own team might call the strategy idiotic—even if it was his best idea. That thin line between brilliance and stupidity? It’s often just a matter of outcomes.
Now, back to your question: if we’re purely looking at negative results, the biggest “mistake” in recent years has to be trading away Damian Lillard. That move ended the team’s era of competitive mediocrity—and dumped them headfirst into a full-scale rebuild. It cost them wins, visibility, and goodwill.
But was it truly a dumb move? Maybe not. Lillard wanted out. The team had limited leverage. Forcing him to stay could’ve created a toxic situation. So management got what they could under the circumstances.
If we’re defining “dumb” as freely chosen decisions that backfired, then two other moves come to mind.
- The Jerami Grant Contract: Inking Grant to a five-year, $160 million deal starting in 2023–24 raised eyebrows. He’s now being paid over $30 million annually while shooting under 38% from the field. At 28, his decline wasn’t expected—but if this version of him sticks around, the Blazers have saddled themselves with a massive cap burden just as they try to rebuild.
- Drafting Scoot Henderson at No. 3: Time will tell, but so far, Scoot hasn’t looked like a sure thing. Players like Amen and Ausar Thompson, drafted just after him, are showing promise. While this isn’t a definitive mistake yet, it’s something to keep an eye on.
In short, while the Blazers may seem stuck, we shouldn’t be too quick to label decisions “dumb.” True front-office errors often only become obvious with time. Most execs aren’t clueless—they’re just playing a high-stakes game with very few controllable variables.
Sometimes, all you can do is take your best swing and hope it connects.
SOURSE;SBNATION/BLAZERSMAILBAGS
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