Four years of data tell a story. It’s not perfect — the Mountain West isn’t the Big Ten, and rosters change — but the numbers give us a baseline for what Minnesota might look like under new head coach Niko Medved.
Comparing Medved’s last four seasons at Colorado State with Ben Johnson’s tenure at Minnesota shows clear trends. The sample size is large enough to see patterns, and they point toward one overarching conclusion: Medved’s teams shoot better, pass better, and score more efficiently.
By the Numbers: CSU vs. Minnesota
Over the past four seasons:
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Field Goals: Both teams took roughly 56 FG attempts per game. Colorado State hit 48.2% (Top 20 nationally), while Minnesota made 44.6% (outside the Top 175).
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Inside the Arc: CSU converted 56.6% of its twos (Top 20), compared to Minnesota’s 50.6% (197th).
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From Deep: CSU shot 35.6% from three (Top 100), Minnesota 34.2% (171st).
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Free Throws: CSU’s .761 FT% ranked 41st; Minnesota’s .673 ranked 291st.
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Assists: CSU averaged 16.3 assists (34th), Minnesota 15.0 (Top 100).
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Scoring: CSU averaged 74 points per game; Minnesota 68.
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Rebounding: Neither excelled at offensive boards — CSU ranked outside the Top 326, Minnesota 254th.
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Turnovers & Defense: Both averaged 11 turnovers per game, and Minnesota averaged one more block.
The efficiency gap is clear. In KenPom terms, Medved’s average Offensive Rating (113.9) beat Minnesota’s best year under Johnson (108.4). Defensively, CSU’s four-year average (100.2) was better than any Gopher season under Johnson despite a disastrous 2022–23.
Projected Expectations for 2025–26
If Medved can transfer his system’s efficiency to the Big Ten, Minnesota’s numbers could rise significantly:
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FG%: .475
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2P%: .550 (35 pts/game from twos)
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3P%: .361 (26 pts/game from threes)
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FT%: .720 (12 pts/game from the line)
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Assists: 16.6 per game
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Points: 73 per game
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Steals: 5 per game
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Blocks: 2.8 per game
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Turnovers: 11 per game
That would push Minnesota into the Big Ten’s middle tier offensively — a huge step forward.
The Talent Picture
While the Gophers’ recent roster (Garcia, Battle, Payne, Willis, Christie, Hawkins) stacks up well against CSU’s (Roddy, Tonje, Stevens, Evans, Clifford), this year’s group is younger and less proven. Additions like Turner and Tyson help, but this isn’t a top-heavy roster by Big Ten standards.
Complicating matters: 12 Big Ten programs have some level of Top 25 buzz, fueled by portal upgrades. On paper, Minnesota is off the national radar. That’s not unusual for a team in transition — but it raises the stakes for Medved’s debut.
Realistic Goals
Fans range from cautious optimism (6–8 Big Ten wins) to bold predictions (11 wins, Top 10 finish). A middle-of-the-pack conference record would be a roaring success in Year One. Most agree on a key priority: make Williams Arena an uncomfortable place for opponents again by winning the majority of home games.
Why the System Matters
Medved’s offense values shot quality over volume. His teams take more efficient shots, limit bad mid-range looks, and keep turnovers low. While Colorado State often punted on offensive rebounding to get back on defense, that philosophy may change slightly in the Big Ten.
Still, style alone won’t erase talent gaps. The Gophers will need their guards — Willis, Asuma, Reynolds, and Stephens — to be quick, disruptive, and efficient. A defense that limits opponent threes and forces contested mid-range shots could keep games close against more athletic teams.
Bottom Line
Year One under Niko Medved likely won’t produce an NCAA Tournament bid, but it should produce structure, smarter shot selection, and a more consistent product. The Gophers might still be fighting uphill against a loaded Big Ten, but if they’re hanging around the bubble in February, it will already feel like progress.
If nothing else, the numbers say one thing: Minnesota basketball is about to look different. And maybe, just maybe, better.
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