The Minnesota Wild aimed to re-sign Kirill Kaprizov with a massive eight-year, $16 million AAV deal upon his U.S. return, making him the NHL’s highest-paid star. It seems they swung and missed.
Fans in the State of Hockey, anxiously awaiting a lock-in, will take this poorly. With Kaprizov hitting free agency on July 1, 2026, urgency mounts: Can the Wild secure him, or pivot elsewhere?
Optimism is scarce, but rejecting the offer doesn’t doom his Minnesota tenure. It’s a red flag, yet financially, long-term deals can favor teams. Kaprizov has been underpaid since his 2021 five-year, $9 million AAV pact, despite elite output (48 goals, 99 points per 82 games).
Most players chase long-term security, but eight-year pacts become bargains as the cap rises—from $104 million now to $113.5 million in 2027-28 and $120 million in 2028-29. A $16 million AAV starts at 15.4% of the cap, dropping to 14.1% and 13.3% soon after—equivalent to $12.7 million today. By Year 3, he could command $18.5 million on the market.
The Wild’s big-money pitch assumes cash motivates him, but it may underwhelm by 2030 for a superstar. Best case: He opts for a 3-5 year stay, like last time.
Even short-term, expect premium pay—Toronto’s Auston Matthews got $13.25 million AAV (15% of cap) over four years, suggesting $15.6 million for Kaprizov now.
This risks a standoff: Why overpay short-term? Yet, with Kaprizov’s leverage over a franchise desperate for its first megastar, they must. He’s poised to maximize earnings now and later in his 30s—if he stays. If not, the Wild’s contention dreams falter. Either way, it’ll be on his terms.
Source: HockeyWilderness
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