When a quarterback is selected in the NFL draft, especially in the first half of the first round, the team drafting them hopes they will become a reliable starter for years to come. However, this outcome is far less common than teams hope for. It’s not unusual for the first, second, or even third quarterback chosen in the draft to end up as disappointments. Check out the table in my tweet for more details.
30 years of QB drafts in the NFL. Orange is Bronco QB draftees, yellow is guys who played for Denver but were not drafted by the Broncos. Lots of 2nd and 6th QBs. pic.twitter.com/ZOrfkqlsWt
— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) May 6, 2024
Most NFL fans can easily assess whether a draft pick has been a “success” or “failure” based on the table above. However, there are some debatable cases. For instance, how would you categorize Baker Mayfield, DeShaun Watson, Derek Carr, Cam Newton, or Geno Smith at this point in their careers? The distinction between success and failure isn’t always clear-cut.
To address this, I decided to use a specific metric: games started. Since a full regular season consists of 16 games, I set the baseline for “success” at 32 games started. This metric provides a defined criterion, although it doesn’t account for higher-level performance metrics.
The table below displays the average career games started (as of now) for the first six quarterbacks taken in each draft since 1995:
| Draft Year | Avg. Career Games Started (First 6 QBs) |
|————|——————————————|
| 1995 | X |
| 1996 | Y |
| … | … |
| 2024 | Z |
It’s worth noting that while Bo Nix was the sixth quarterback taken in the 2024 draft, there were six quarterbacks selected in the first twelve picks for the first time in NFL history. This is a significant deviation from drafts like 1996, where only four quarterbacks were chosen.
Despite the variability in draft years, it’s important to remember that being the sixth quarterback taken doesn’t necessarily mean a player is destined for failure. Some notable quarterbacks taken sixth include Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, Matt Hasselbeck, and Russell Wilson. Conversely, there have been clear disappointments such as Chuck Clements, Rohan Davey, Tom Brandstater, Connor Cook, and Kyle Lauletta, who all failed to start a single regular-season game in their NFL careers.
Looking at the averages, the 2004 NFL draft stands out with Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger each starting 234 or more NFL games in their careers. Their combined average is 143. The only class that comes close is the legendary 1983 class, with an average of 137. However, the 1983 class is weighed down by Todd Blackledge (29 games started) and Tony Eason (51 games started). Conversely, the 2004 class is dragged down by JP Losman (33 games started) and Luke McCown (10 games started).
I’ve only carried this analysis up to 2019 since quarterbacks drafted in 2020 and beyond haven’t had enough seasons in the NFL to establish a meaningful average. Nevertheless, the top six quarterbacks from the 2020 class have started an average of 39 games in their careers so far, spanning four seasons. A decade from now, we might be discussing the 2020 quarterback class in the same breath as the 2004 and 1983 classes.
The 2020 class includes Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts—all of whom are expected to be their team’s primary starting quarterback for the 2024 season. This is unprecedented; not even the 2004 class can claim this as JP Losman, despite barely surpassing the 32 games started plateau, didn’t have a particularly successful career.
Just for fun, I’ve gone all the way back to 1980. Below is the data, with yellow highlighting indicating quarterbacks who were not drafted by Denver but played for the Broncos, and orange indicating quarterbacks drafted by the Broncos.
Looking specifically at the sixth quarterback taken in the draft from 1980 to 2019, there have been significantly more failures (29) than successes (10). Some additional successes not previously mentioned include Trevor Siemian, Trent Edwards, Kyle Orton, Gus Frerotte, and Doug Flutie. Surprisingly, there have been more sixth quarterbacks who failed to start a single game in their careers (12) than those who started 32 or more games (10). Therefore, the odds of success for Bo Nix aren’t great. However, if we examine the successful sixth quarterbacks, they share two common factors:
1. They were undervalued in the draft (obviously!).
2. They landed on teams that were great fits for them.
One could argue that Dan Marino would have succeeded on any NFL team, but he was fortunate to have a head coach in Don Shula who excelled at maximizing his players’ talents. Matt Hasselbeck was drafted to sit behind Brett Favre in Green Bay before being traded to Seattle, where he thrived. Tom Brady had the opportunity to learn behind Drew Bledsoe and benefited from a strong defense, a strong running game, and a superb offensive line. Colin Kaepernick found himself on a team with a head coach who wanted a dual-threat quarterback, supported by a good offensive line and a great defense. Similarly, Russell Wilson had a supportive environment, although his offensive lines in Seattle were often subpar.
Bo Nix is in a favorable position with a great head coach for developing young quarterbacks in Sean Payton. Payton has maximized the talents of quarterbacks like Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, and Taysom Hill, and played a role in the development of Tony Romo. Nix is also supported by a veteran offensive line, with the only significant change being the center position compared to the 2023 Broncos offensive line, which was better than many realize. The only missing piece is a strong defense. The 2023 Broncos defense was average at best and terrible at worst.
Some changes on the defensive line and in the inside linebacker group could lead to an improved ability to stop the run, but it won’t matter if the pass rush remains as lackluster as it was last season.
