The Denver Broncos may need to reconsider their apparent eagerness regarding one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft. There has been growing speculation linking Denver to former Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. However, they should perhaps dial back their enthusiasm given the conflicting reports regarding his potential and the level of interest in him across the league.
Former NFL quarterback Jim Miller highlighted concerns about McCarthy’s style of play, drawing parallels to Colin Kaepernick’s tenure under Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco. Miller noted McCarthy’s tendency towards fastballs, likening it to Kaepernick’s struggles with touch throws and accuracy over the middle. This critique suggests that McCarthy may have limitations in his game that could affect his effectiveness at the professional level.
Circling back to watching JJ McCarthy.
This time vs. Indiana 2023.
Boy did they give him trouble early. Michigan pass protection was 🗑️but also off target throws, poor pocket manipulation, missed reads.
But he gets it going eventually with a Sunday throw into a Sunday window 🎯 pic.twitter.com/iR1qAv3F82— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) March 28, 2024
Kaepernick’s career in the NFL was marked by a maximum completion rate of 62.4% over six seasons. In 2013, he led the 49ers to the Super Bowl with a completion rate of 58.4%, accompanied by a 12-4 record, 21 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Notably, despite his performance, the 49ers ranked 30th in passing yards that season. Their success was primarily attributed to their strong rushing offense, where Kaepernick played a significant role, and their formidable defense, rather than Kaepernick’s passing prowess.
During his tenure from 2011 to 2016, Kaepernick had the lowest completion rate among quarterbacks with at least 58 starts, according to Stathead.
Critics of McCarthy have raised concerns about his limited passing opportunities at Michigan. In the 2023 season, he averaged only 22.1 passing attempts per game, which was the lowest among the top quarterback prospects the Broncos might consider in the draft. Similar to Harbaugh’s 49ers, the recent Wolverines’ success was largely driven by their rushing game, notably featuring Blake Corum, who ranked seventh in carries, and a strong defense that allowed the fewest points in the nation.
However, despite the criticism, McCarthy has garnered support from some quarters.
Chris Simms: ‘You Can’t Look at Stats’ With J.J. McCarthy
Chris Simms of NBC Sports also suggested that McCarthy’s performance could have been hindered by the system he played in. On the “Chris Simms Unbuttoned” podcast on March 8, Simms emphasized that despite McCarthy’s strengths, statistics alone shouldn’t be the sole basis of evaluation. He noted that Michigan’s playing style under Jim Harbaugh wasn’t typically seen as conducive to quarterbacks excelling, implying that it required a high level of mental toughness and adaptability, qualities necessary for NFL success. Additionally, Simms highlighted McCarthy’s pedigree, suggesting that teams may value his experience in a structured offense.
Similarly, Miller acknowledged McCarthy’s potential but also hinted at the limitations imposed by Michigan’s system, emphasizing that McCarthy’s ability to lead and win shouldn’t be discounted. He noted that McCarthy’s experience in a disciplined offensive scheme could appeal to NFL teams.
With McCarthy’s draft stock potentially sliding closer to the Broncos’ current draft position at No. 12, there may be opportunities for them to acquire him without substantial trading costs, especially if there’s a lack of competition from other teams.
McCarthy’s stock rose in mock drafts following a strong postseason performance, with his ability to process plays drawing comparisons to Drew Brees. At one point, he was even projected as high as the No. 2 overall pick to the Washington Commanders, although recent discussions have tempered expectations.
J.J. McCarthy Could Slide Closer to Broncos’ Pick in Draft
According to a report by Michael David Smith on April 2 for Pro Football Talk, Drake Maye from North Carolina has once again been projected as the second quarterback to be selected in the upcoming draft on FanDuel.
This change comes as Jayden Daniels, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and Miller’s top-rated quarterback prospect, has risen to the second position behind Caleb Williams, mirroring the recent ascent of McCarthy.
However, skepticism regarding McCarthy’s sudden rise is growing within NFL circles.
An anonymous executive from an AFC team expressed doubts about McCarthy’s surge in draft projections, suggesting that media hype might be inflating his perceived value. This sentiment was conveyed through The Athletic’s Alec Lewis on the “92Noon!” show on April 1.
